Three market thoughts today
Hello everyone. I keep wanting to write a post on churningandburning about my latest trades (the bitcoin summit short and the QBTS short into Jensen's conference) but just haven't put the time/effort into it. I'll write a little bit here for now.
Three things to talk about:
Crypto -- I remain bearish on crypto. I've mostly sat out this range since closing out my short from the sell-the-summit trade a few weeks ago. But now I think it's a good continuation short from this price location. I initiated ETH short around 2000 and bitcoin around 86500. Stops above 2100 and 88k at this point. I'm not a super technical trader but there's probably a rising wedge or bear flag you could draw on BTC's price. It traded into supply and should continue lower. I'm also short some ETH, which I rarely trade--it looks like such a bloodbath happening there that I'm hoping I can make 20-25% on the next leg lower. This isn't an A+ trade and I'm positioned small on it so I didn't feel like posting it yesterday.
CoreWeave IPO CRWV -- My gut says this is a buy. They priced it down reasonably and the multiple really isn't that bad. The sentiment on twitter is super bearish on this, but my lesson from the RDDT IPO is that negative sentiment spreads easily on IPO's while positive sentiment or buying pressure often lurks silently. Why it happens this way, I don't know--I heard "antimemetic" as a new word that might explain this. Some ideas are destined to spread only silently or not at all, maybe because people don't want to be made fun of for buying an obvious pig of a stock.
How I might trade this stock is to buy the opening print and then see how it trades. Kind of vague I know, but it's hard to outline a clear plan on a dynamic play like this. Just know that I'm bullish unless this opens below underwriting price, which will be $40.
- Quantum short -- even though I made a nice profit, it's unfortunate I lost my patience on this. The strength they showed earlier in this week, particularly with IONQ making unexpected new highs, made me not want to deal with the swings, even on a greatly reduced position. That's one of my character flaws I guess. QBTS my old position currently now trades at 7.50, which is where I expected it would go last Friday. I really need to create a "close my eyes" swing account for plays like these where it has to resolve against an annoying range.
I have no strong thoughts on the broader market, other than I don't expect it to bounce to new highs any time soon. Tariffs are still in everyone's minds.