The Dodgers Have Climbed the Wall of Worry
The Dodgers are going to the 2024 World Series.
Fantastic. This was actually tough season to endure from a fan's perspective. On paper, we won the most games of all MLB teams--how tough can that be to endure? But being able to enjoy a season often comes down to measuring outcomes against expectations and whether at any given point, you look at the rest of the season with a sense of hope or a sense of dread.
To quote the late Vin Scully: "Good is not good, when better is expected."
The Dodgers came into 2024 with titanic expectations due to the money spent on big ticket acquisitions like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teo Hernandez. PECOTA projected the Dodgers to win 101 games. The tagline for every Dodgers 2024 narrative: World Series or bust.
Their NLCS opponents, the New York Mets, came into 2024 with comparatively less fanfare. They sold off their big signings from 2023, like dumping Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the prior year's trade deadline. In the offseason, they only signed bargain bin reclamation projects that nobody else wanted, like Luis Severino and Sean Manaea. Their lineup and their bullpen looked average on paper. PECOTA projected 84 wins. They started off very slow, picked it up from June onward, and then just barely clinched a wild card berth on the last day of the regular season. They rode this momentum to beat the Brewers and then beat the heavily favored Phillies (their hated division rivals). I thoroughly enjoyed the Mets 2024 season as a neutral observer. They had a successful season, even if it came up short.
The Dodgers are on the other hand... gave us no shortage of worries from spring to fall. Every single month there was something we had to wring our hands over, something that had us thinking this will spell our eventual downfall.
I'll go over worries with a rating for every negative thought we all shared.
1. Intrusive thought that we know lacks substantial meat behind it, but it sneaks into our mind anyway
2. Valid minor worry but we worry it will become even worse
3. Valid major worry that we have no idea how it will resolve
4. Total doom. This is now very fucked.
Game 2: Yamamoto blows up against the Padres in his first ever start. We signed this guy for $300 million and he might just be a bum. (worry rating: 1)
Game 23: 12-11. Slow start. Pitching blown up too often, inconsistent offense. Something feels 'off'. (worry rating: 1)
Games 24-154: Our entire pitching staff slowly collapses into an ethereal void. (worry rating: all over)
- Bobby Miller: looked like Walker Buehler 2.0 in his scintillating debut against the Cardinals. Then he injures his shoulder. Comes back and is the worst Dodgers starter ever before mercifully being sent down to the minors in September.
- Clayton Kershaw: shoulder surgery recovery to start the year, comes back in August, then all of a sudden an injured big toe Gavin Stone: healthy all year, until a bum shoulder in September
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto: rotator cuff injury in July, uncertain timeline
- Tyler Glasnow: minor injuries all year. "elbow tenditinis" late in the year
- Dustin May: out all of last year from major elbow injury, now out because... a torn esophagus? WTF?
- River Ryan: Top pitching prospect in the farm. Couple good starts and now out for 18 months after Tommy John surgery.
But it's ok... we just need a few of these guys to come back by the playoffs, right?
Game 73: Mookie Betts, our 2nd best player, gets a fastball on the wrist and now it's broken (worry rating: 2)
Game 96: We blow a 5 run lead in the 9th inning against the freakin' Tigers. Bullpen is full of unreliable journeymen. Our 'closer' Evan Phillips is in a slump. (worry rating: 2)
Games 110-158: it seems like the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres just refuse to lose in August and September--constantly finding late comeback wins and staying just a few games behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings (worry rating: 3)
Game 155: Glasnow and Stone and Kershaw are declared out for the year. We now know we only have 2 decent starters heading into the playoffs. (worry rating: 4)
Game 159: Freddie Freeman, our 3rd best player, trips while running to first base and his ankle turns sideways. (worry rating: 3)
Game 3, NLDS vs. the Padres: nasty infield defense leads to a 6 run blowup in the 3rd inning. We lose 6-5. Same old Dodgers, about to go one and done as for the third year in a row. Disgusting. (worry rating: 4)
Game 2, NLCS vs. the Mets: Dave throws out unproven pitcher Landon Knack to eat innings. He blows up by allowing a grand slam. Fans feel that the game was punted. (worry rating: 3)
Game 5, NLCS vs. the Mets: Dave leaves in starter Jack Flaherty way too long. He gives up an unfathomable 8 earned runs and we lose, despite a decent offensive showing. Fans feel the game was punted. There's also long-term worry that Flaherty's back flared up and that his velocity dropped a lot and that's a problem because we're only 2.5 starters deep (worry rating: 2)
And then last night, the Dodgers declared 'we don't give a fuck' and they clinched the a World Series berth with a game 6 victory at home. They climbed the wall of worry and got to the promised land. Yeah I know they need four more wins but I am of the opinion that a World Series appearance automatically denotes a successful season. Whatever happens after that is up to the baseball Gods.
It's easy to get caught in the moment and get too negative. We dwell because we're Dodgers fans and bad things tend to happen in October. This is the end, how can we go on? Then the magic happens and we're actually there. The next time we worry--maybe it's because Giancarlo smashed a 500 footer in the 7th or maybe because we ran out of lefties with Soto on deck--just remember how far they have climbed that wall. Somehow they just do it because they don't give a fuck.