SpaceX IPO day
You know, my emotions are suprisingly subdued for today. I think I'm just going through SpaceX fatigue. Every single day my brain would absorb 100 different takes on it via TWTR/LNKD. Bullish. Bearish. Astroid mining. 28T TAM largest ever. Over-valued at 100x sales. Unprofitable.
I don't know. I just got tired of it and I didn't even write out the mini-post I wanted, like I did on CBRS/Groq. I've also already counted my money too many times for it to feel new at this point. I'll be in the 6-9x multiple range most likely.
Honestly when I got into this at 200B 2 years ago, I thought an IPO within 2 years at 1T would be best case scenario. Now we're at 2T... pretty crazy. I've locked in about 20%. It's super early... yeah it can go to $200 and I'll just hedge more. It's currently just making a new intraday high at $168 as of 12:41pm.
Anyway. I'm going to take a break and not look at the quotes all day. Here are some notes from my broker on SpaceX's future valuation.
SpaceX as an AI Data Center Hyperscaler • SpaceX's Colossus 1 cluster went from concept to live training in 122 days - and from hardware installation to active model training in just 19 days. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, publicly called this unprecedented.
• For context: most hyperscale data center builds take 12 to 18 months from groundbreaking to operation. SpaceX compressed that timeline by roughly 95%.
• SpaceX has an operational/execution advantage in building and scaling AI data centers.
• The GPU equivalent footprint has scaled rapidly across phases - from 100,000 H100-equivalents at Colossus 1 Phase 1 in mid-2024, to an estimated 3.65 million equivalents by January 2026 (LIVE RIGHT NOW), with a long-term target of 50 million equivalents by 2029–2030.
• This positions SpaceX not simply as a rocket company, but as a vertically integrated AI infrastructure provider competing directly with AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure for frontier AI workloads.
Starlink: Connecting the 2.2 Billion • Starlink is an emerging market revenue story ... it is not a US/airplane/boat/RV revenue story.
• Approximately 2.2 billion people globally remain without internet access. Starlink is the only technology currently capable of serving this population at scale - no terrestrial alternative exists for remote and rural geographies.
• SpaceX has secured regulatory approval in 160 of 195 countries - 82% of all nations - covering approximately 73% of the addressable global population (excluding China and Russia).
• Current Starlink subscribers stand at over 10.3 million as of Q1 2026. The subscriber base is growing, but remains a fraction of the addressable market. • The revenue opportunity in just the top 10 underserved markets - including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Bangladesh - is estimated at $131b annually at a 25% market penetration rate, using current country-specific Starlink pricing.
• India alone represents a $60b annual opportunity at 25% penetration. This is a long-duration growth asset with a defensible competitive moat.
SpaceX Mining • When Amazon IPOed in 1997 they sold books online ... today they have many business divisions that each generate billions in annual revenue. Similarly, we believe SpaceX will have many incremental business divisions in the future that will generate billions in annual revenue. Space mining is one of those divisions.
• Space resource extraction is a long-horizon opportunity, but SpaceX is the only company with the launch economics to make it feasible. Starship's reusability dramatically reduces the cost per kilogram to orbit - the foundational requirement for any commercial space mining operation.
• Near-term opportunities are on the Moon: Helium-3 reserves estimated at 1 to 10 million tons carry a theoretical value of $3 to $28 trillion and have direct applications as a cryogenic coolant for quantum computers today, with fusion fuel potential longer-term.
• Asteroid 16 Psyche - a 200-kilometer metallic body - contains iron and nickel with an estimated value of $10,000 quadrillion, making it the largest known repository of structural metals in the solar system.
• Near-Earth asteroids 3554 Amun and 1986 DA contain platinum group metals - platinum, palladium, and rhodium - with estimated market values of $20 trillion and $11.65 trillion respectively, materials that are critical to industrial catalysis, fuel cells, and electronics.
• These are optionality assets - not priced into the current valuation. An investor who owns SpaceX at IPO is acquiring a call option on the commercialization of the solar system, with no other publicly traded vehicle offering equivalent exposure.