Shit Stock Rally is Getting Close to Ending?
Lots of junk out there making new highs with extended charts. You have the quantum quartet--IONQ, QUBT, QBTS, RGTI. You have "AI but for sound" junkco SOUN.
There's TSLA, which is a different beast than all of them (not a Shit Stock). I'm not even that interested in that one yet, I'm just mentioning it because others have.
I found myself getting tired of watching these stocks yesterday. I didn't even short them but the idea of shorting them stayed in my head long enough to make me feel a little sad, a little upset... best way describe that feeling--it's this internal pressure to "nail the top" instead of letting it come to me. There's this sense of lacking real clarity from the gut. I don't like that feeling at all, I haven't handled it well since washing out in 2023. That's why I'm part time Pete.
Here are my loose thoughts:
There will be a large correction on all of these stocks this week. We are in the 9th inning for this cycle. The top from these large corrections will not be violated as quickly as last week's highs. It will take weeks/months and it could be the start of a larger 50% rolling correction.
It will be difficult. There will be many big-h sell patterns that will be difficult to navigate through. I might have to try to "trade perfectly" (I use this phrase 50% ironically and 50% seriously) by covering morning lows and then stalking for the big-h highs rather than just being a true position trader who holds all day.
It might be extremely fast at some spots and create FOMO. This is still a hard thing for me to navigate--seeing that "SO CLOSE but not PERFECT" setup and then it fades from the bell or it has that 10am clearout (see SOUN on 12/9), makes me want to chase. That leaves me in a spot where I'm already offsides and feeling mental pressure. The old Pete could swashbuckle through that but not the new Pete. I always feel like I gotta be close to perfect.
As of this morning, Tuesday the 17th of December 2024, all of these stocks setting up are in that "good not great" territory. Can there be a good trade? Yes. Will it something I feel confident is "top-10 setup of the year, no brainer, make 100k" territory for someone like me, who's brain turns as slowly as an oil tanker these days? Eh. As of 9am, maybe QUBT is a legit setup. At +30% pre-market, QUBT is a double just over 2 days from 7 to 14. So that's quite a bit of range.
I had this distinct feeling on MSTR and SMCI on the huge top day. Like I could tell from that day everyone was talking about them and they were the "main character" stocks on FinTwit. I can't arrive to this same feeling on small caps. A lot of this might be because I deliberately choose to not follow a lot of small-cap oriented accounts, for the sake of my own sanity. From a sentiment point of view... I like the idea that we are past a juncture where "bigger names" called for the short/sell (Citron, Shrekli). We can be the 2nd mouse to get the cheese while they're stuck in the mousetrap.
My goal is first and foremost, DON'T LOSE MONEY. That's step 1. Sometimes I don't get past that step 1 to step 2 which is "nail the day of the top with size" and step 3 "hold for bigger targets". I wish this was a higher conviction post like the MSTR trade but it's not. Good luck to me.