Sandwich Review in NYC #8 (Lioni's) + some election thoughts
All the way out in Bensonhurst to visit Olivia's grandma on Saturday. We decided to go visit Lioni's. I know I said I was tired of Italian heroes but it's right there so I couldn't resist. Last time I was there was when they still had their pop-up shop in Dekalb Market, which was at least 4 years ago.
They have a huge amount of choices, usually named after famous (sometimes fictional) Italians. I ordered the Dean Martin--prosciutto, mozzarella, olive oil. I already had ate lunch so I wanted a cold sub that could survive for a day.
Decent sub. Prosciutto and cheese won't ever be the most amazing to me but it's reliable. I prefer the way the French add a buttery/creamy element to their ham & cheese sandwiches.
Rating: 3 (Solid)
Umm, so it's November 5th today. Haven't written in awhile because the World Series (post on that soon, LGD) and then election betting stuff and stock-market related stuff got in the way. Some random thoughts
- It really does feel like a coinflip, sorry to be cliche. And I feel it's a coinflip not even because it's so tight between Kamala and Trump (it might be, but it could also be a medium margin victory for one of them and not that surprising to me) but because the information we have available is so thin and unreliable. It's hard to have any conviction on any piece of information. Chris Camillo agrees with me in his latest video: https://t.co/VLo5YsDtTP
- Almost every poll seems to be a black box of shit. I think the Selzer poll going the other way to Kamala is interesting but people are overweighing it due to two previous cycles of success. I'm actually fading it a bit by taking Trump to win Iowa at 81c on Poly.
- What I see is the primary bull thesis on Kamala: women voters show up in record numbers and make "Roevember" a reality
- What I see is the primary bull thesis on Trump: he outperforms the polls again and given that this is a narrower margin than 16'/20', he wins easily.
- I think the best bets have yet to materialize. Always save powder for election night.
- I'm currently short straddles on DJT. I had good timing last week to short the call side on the parabolic move to 55 and now I'm trading the other side by selling 15-20 Nov 8 puts. DJT isn't a business that just zeroes forever on a bad thing like a biotech with bad data. It's a vibes stock. I think there's a good chance it bounces on Trump "losing" because right wing diehards will be reluctant to puke out on initial headlines. They will think it's rigged and hold on for some kind of proof, like in 2020. There's also a chance it's too close to call by Friday's close. I think anyone paying for "insurance" on this stock is badly overpaying at 1.20 for 15 puts that expire this week. That being said, I have far more premium at stake on the naked call side so I'd still rather see the stock go down than up. I think if he does win, I think you short any decent gap-up for a sell-the-news play anyway so I'd be comfortable short at my strikes... my lowest strike is 47 and my highest is 65, all expiring this week. My friend Clockwork takes a conservative approach and shorts the 80-95s for less premium so he can sleep at night.
