I think CRCL is a mean reversion short today.
It's 8:50 am EST on Friday the 20th of June 2025
It's been awhile since posting a pre-market bias. I only try to do this when I have a fair amount of confidence so here you go. I think CRCL is a short today. Putting it on the record so I can be laughed at later. Everyone wants a mega triple gap to short Monday at 300 but I just think a 50% move for a large cap IPO (150 to 230 so far pre-market) is already a lot and it's up from 31 in like ten trading days. IDK man. Will it really cross $200 and not come back for a re-test?
I am hoping I can spot some kind of fair price for the 0dte puts. That's how I'd prefer to play it. I have yet to trade any options on it.
That said... rule 1 of shorting parabolic tops -- don't lose (significant) money on the way up. If it wants to hold up, let it hold up. I'll have a post-mortem (with PnL) after the day is over.