CRCL post-mortem (spoiler: ended up being a loss)
So... CRCL immediately pulled from the open. Bunch of red bars. I didn't want to get sucked into immediately opening bell weakness but I did.
Initially, I saw the $200 puts trade at 1x2 and I just marketed in and got filled 2.50 (oops). I've learned that I can't get too nitty about options pricing on volatile stocks with limit offers so market was the way to go.
Then CRCL keeps going. Breaks under $220. I don't know. I'm just trading from the seat of my pants and I add. I raise my average to $4... 150 puts so that's $60k risk. It does seem like a lot.
At 9:50 there's a key moment. It makes a new low to 206 but the 0dte's can't break their old high of $7. Then there's a bounce. And there's a huge IV crush on the puts. It immediately gets back to $4 bid even though the stock price is still lower than where I entered my puts. Mentally I acknowledge this is a bad sign. I spent the next 10 minutes kinda thinking about my exit. Eventually it trades over $220 and I flatten my put position at 2.50. So I lost about 23k on the options. It's still so early on the day and theres a part of me that wants to hang on and just see what could happen knowing my risk is defined but.... my gut just tells me that's it. The V-shape reversal is a bad sign.
Picture of the weekly $200's expiring today... you can see where I got in/out.
from an execution standpoint-- i dont hate my entries and exits. ive certainly been slower and done worse. sometimes im caught trying to be cute and "negiotiate out" rather than just acting on the immediate feeling of wanting to be out and i at least did not do that here. the worst decision was just adding on impulse. if I had simply sat on my initial "hey this is a decent flier" idea, I'd have a 2.50 cost and be getting out near that price for break even. aggression/size gave me a fat 23k loss.
from a big idea standpoint-- i did find myself asking "is 230 to 180 really the obvious move? as obvious as the best 0dte plays i had from before?" idk if it was. i think the real failure was here.... being too aggressive thinking there was a huge correction coming here. oh well. it's one of my few misfires if you're logging my pre-market bias posts on this micro blog. sorry if you lost with me.
as of 11:38am EST CRCL just made a new intrday high at 236. Seems like I'm just wrong and that's okay. Wrong means losing money. I'm done trading it for today, cya on Monday.