Buying Index Funds is Religion
You ever have those moments where you see can two different worlds? There's normal people who dollar cost average into the SPY every month and then there are traders who barely put any money into the market because they're afraid of the volatility. I know people in trading, they make millions of dollars and keep it all in bonds/cash. They view the market as inherently risky even though the normal person view is that buying index funds is "guranteeed 7-8% annual returns" and that daytrading is just gambling. Two different worlds.
For traders or even general finance people (I know non-trading finance people who are also really scared to buy index funds), it's just too much to have a significant amount in a market that you have to see bounce around every day.
Here's my take and I'll spare on any thoughts on politics, macro--buying SPY NO MATTER WHAT is like religion. You have to be irrationally ignorant and believe in American Capitalism no matter what the current situation is. Sometime down the line, we can't predict how or when, the bad things will pass. And selling for taxes suck so even if I could sense the top, that always holds me back. (if you have a 401k, it can make sense to try to play on/off with your risk since you don't occur taxes--the vast majority of my stocks are taxable and I keep my 401k empty to trade it).
I'm going to choose to keep believing today, even if certain things really suck.
One of the drawbacks for me, is that if I didn't manage the situation well with smart/timely hedging (which is what caused me anguish in my last post), these deeper drawdowns having waking up every day anxious. And I can't have great instincts when I'm in deep anxiety. Today I don't see the bottom being in... but that's really just the lack of conviction speaking, not necesarily a prediction of going lower. So as tempting as it is to view this as an opportunity to hero buy the market and make six figures, it doesn't work that way for me either. We will see. Godspeed America.