Bitcoin Breakout
In 2020, bitcoin broke out to new all time highs by getting over that critical 20,000 level.
I remember my psychology at the time was extremely negative, particularly on crypto itself. Not necessarily because I was bearish (maybe a little) but because of these 3 things:
- first ever margin call in late 2019 trading bitcoin while it was stuck
- first ever crypto theft -- long story short, I was the victim of a rogue trading scheme that plundered my money by trading rapidly against the spread on a thin alt coin. Lost about $50k in bitcoin this way.
- absolutely shocked at 5k plunge during March 2020
So even though I got long at 16-18k, I didn't really crush it with size like I should have if I had a better mindset going on.
Likewise, the same shit just happened with this 74,000 all time high breakout. I had positioned myself to have a large btc position heading into the election, with. I tried to ignore any election correlation or narrative. Prior to Nov 5th, it seemed like betting markets were tightening and BTC had a negative reaction to it... spooked me a bit and I flattened out. Then Trump 'won' early on and I piled back in at 73k, although not fully because some of my prior position was via ETFs in my 401k. I found it difficult to recover from what I perceived as an unforced blunder--get my mind right, come up with a plan to add even more, etc. I basically acted out of panic to get back in.
So yesterday I was bitching and moaning while my largest position had been trending up towards 90k, feeling like the whole world is getting super rich while my modest position is getting incremental gains. I must have checked my phone 1278 times even though I had zero actionable plan (I'm not adding more at this point). You can never feel large enough in your winners. I did again... fucked myself up before the huge easy breakout.
Here's to 100k by year's end and then 150k in 2025. If it gets there it'll be one of my largest profits ever but not really a needle mover. Does it have to be? Why do I penalize myself for not doubling my networth on this trade when I absolutely do not have the risk tolerance to try for that? This is why I'm retired now, I don't want to deal with these thoughts anymore. I try to cope by not logging onto social media and seeing the usual memes from the usual crowd. Whatever happens happens, I'll be fine if it topped out and I'll be fine if it keeps going. That's what I hang my hat on--the next trade won't really change anything for me.