Bear thesis revisited & BTC thoughts
I posted an instinctual desire to get out of the market back in April when the SPY bounced nearly 10% on the tariff pause. I thought that was a good exit to take on some long-term portfolio holdings, which I normally never touch.
This ended up being a mistake. I bought back in at 600 for all my non-taxable accoutns, re-allocated the cash to other assets, but ultimately the move cost me about $100,000 in cost basis compared to just never selling. That was the amount I was thinking about in buying put premium as a hedge, so it's not a big deal. Sometimes things just unfold in a way that you don't expect. The wise choice was to only sell 20% and not sell it all. I look at the bright side... my index funds recovered to highs when I least expected them to and the healthy AI-driven IPO market makes me feel a lot better about my private portfolio.
Now let's talk BTC. I am 1/2 positioned into this breakout from 111k. It has to go higher but I don't know to where. I wasn't that aggressive compared to prior position and it pains me a bit. I was sticky to a bearish bias for too long on this and my decision to buy at the highs reflected a reluctant "Ok I GUESS I have to be long" mindset. I thought I had the perfect trade on it--buy 40k, add higher, sell into 100k euphoria with the election, stay away when supposedly all the perfect factors said bitcoin would go higher but it couldn't hold 100k, wait a year or more to buy at a big discount...
Again, long-term is just impossible to predict. You just do the best you can and update your priors. At least I'm not sidelined and if this breakout is a disappointment later on, at least I can say I'm only partially sized.